While the pundits (no, not me, the other pundits) argue about whether Apple is trying to protect their delicate users from the chainsaw gangs of Flash apps or if Adobe is now being beaten like an LAPD cop killer because of some ancient grudge, I'm thinking that their may be a whole 'nother reason: It is step one on the road to killing the Mac
Why kill the Mac? Easy. Jobs can only make money on hardware and a little bit on their own software, but he wants the 30% on everything like he's getting on the iPhoneOS side. Can't lock down the Mac and setup an app store on it now, so it must die.
In order to kill the Mac, you'd need to be able to do everything you can do on a Mac on a iPad (well, except for development -- screw you developers!)
Replace my Mac? Yep. Get iWork on the iPad and a bluetooth keyboard. Oh, you want a bigger screen and everything. Ok, what about a 15" iPad Pro that folds up like a laptop with a built-in keyboard and multitouch trackpad/display. MacBook Air-like dimensions with a full day's battery life. Oh yeah, and you can sync it directly to your iPhone.
What more do you need pointy-haired boss? Pointy-haired boss wants a corporate dashboard application on his iPad with notifications... pronto!
The one kind of development Apple does want is iPhoneOS development. What if there was an app available for free in the app store that let you design your UI, kinda like you do in Interface Builder now, and let you write code. When you're ready to test, you click build, the code goes up to Apple, is compiled, packaged, signed and comes back to your iPad ready for you to test and debug. When you are satisfied with the results, click Publish and your app is in the App Store, ready to be enjoyed by all fartapp-aficionados.
Ah, but how can that work if you are doing stuff like Corona, MonoTouch or CS5. And so 3.3.1 had to be changed.
So, specifically, my predictions are:
* iPad Pro
- Ives will twist his hands and say that they completely rethought the portable computer and voila, iPad Pro w/ laptop style and a second touch-display that acts like a trackpad - the whole package suitable for authoring applications - at the same time, Steve will declare that they listened to you and now you can own and use an iPad and iPad Pro without iTunes and you can sync your iPhone to your iPad Pro.
* iPad XCode
- Integrated Development Environment on the iPad Pro for authoring apps for the appstore. Maybe free, maybe $49. But it won't include a compiler or code-signer. Your source will go to Apple to be compiled, signed, versioned, scrutinized and approved.
* Mac languish
- only minor hardware improvements - Snow Leopard is the last Mac OS - security problems go unfixed and just become justification for the glorious iPad Pro. Every move they make will be to reduce the need for people to buy Macs.
The net effect is Steve gets his 30% on everything.